Apollo's chief economist sees no AI payoff yet outside big tech

Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, argues in a 24 October note that AI has "delivered zero financial payoff to corporate America outside of tech". His charts show revenue per worker and profit margins rising for the big tech "Mag 7" but flat for the rest of the S&P 500 (the "S&P 493"), and no sign yet of AI lifting productivity growth. He says VC-backed companies keep spending more on tokens, while mainstream firms are starting to see token spending as a cost that weighs on margins. He also argues business decisions rest on judgment and accountability, which AI does not understand. The Hacker News thread (about 440 comments) has no consensus. The largest sub-thread, 144 replies, starts from a comment that tech is simply first to change, comparing it to electrification, which took about a decade to spread. The next largest, 69 replies, opens with the 1987 line "You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics." At least eight top-level comments say the payoff is thin even inside tech. A few describe real uses outside it, such as a car dealership booking appointments with voice AI. One commenter calls the analysis weak, saying big tech margins have risen since 2020 for other reasons, including layoffs. Sorted take: the note looks at the largest US listed companies, not small firms, and the thread does not settle whether this is early days or a real limit. For a small team, the useful test is narrower: pick one workflow and measure it before and after.